Overview of mathematical methods for power system reliability evaluation

Abstract

Nowadays, with the strong development of the world's economy, the power system reliability issue is increasingly concerned. A high reliable power system brings peace of mind in production investment, stability in national security, citizen's satisfaction… Therefore, serious researches of the power system reliability problem is very necessary. Based on that researches, we can accurately evaluate the situation, propose operational scenarios, troubleshoot reasonably, plan properly for the future. From there, we can implement the ultimate goal of the power system reliability problem is to maximize the reliability, meeting the nation's development need. However, at present, power system reliability problems in many countries have not yet applied updated and objective assessment tools, only exploiting the surface of the problem. Through the research process, the authors publish this paper to outline the basic concepts, the classification and the parameters of the power system reliability problem. Besides, the paper summarizes in detail the methods of calculating and evaluating power system reliability based on the current mathematical models (Analytical Graph method, State Space method, Failure Tree method, Monte - Carlo method) with examples of each method. Thereby, these methods are compared and indicated the applications in specific situations.