Research of Applying forecasting theory to establish the optimal load transfer strategy for maintenance at 110kV substation

Abstract

Regarding electric power systems, Short-Term load forecasting plays a pivotal role in the planning and synchronous operation of an electric grid. In recent years, because of the computer industry developing at an ever-accelerating rate, plenty of sophisticated load forecasting models have been better utilized, thereby becoming more and more widely used. However, in VietNam, there is no practical use of these models, and load forecasting is still mainly based on engineers’ personal experiences. Due to the fact that experiences are not absolutely precise, applying conventional load forecasting techniques easily results in many severe consequences. Therefore, in this article, the necessity, as well as benefits of using load forecasting models for the VietNam power grid, will be clearly and thoroughly demonstrated. This paper, additionally, provides a suggested optimal load transfer strategies for 110 kV substations when these substations are under maintenance, avoiding overload for transformers and nearby feeders. Through specific examples and statistics data, the efficiency of methods suggested in this article has been proved.